Best Bets for Ayr and Newbury - petsitterbank

Best Bets for Ayr and Newbury

Chris Day is back with his best bets for the weekend including a 20/1 fancy in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup.

Racing betting tips: Saturday September 17

1pt Manaccan in 2.15 Newbury at 4/1 (General)

1pt Heroism in 2.50 Newbury at 8/1 (General)

1pt Savvy Victory in 3.35 Newbury at 10/1 (William Hill)

1pt Magical Spirit in 3.40 Ayr at 20/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


Ayr’s Western meeting comes to a close on Saturday with the latest edition of the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cupand it’s as tricky a puzzle as ever to solve.

If the form of Erosandpsyche, who finished runner up to Highfield Princess in the Flying Five on Sunday, is to be believed, then he’s going to be very hard to beat and he’s the clear pick on ratings, but we’ve seen horses with a similar profile lose in this race before and the quick turnaround asks another question.

The Shadwell Estate-owned three-year-old Khanjar was on very quick ground at Haydock and comes from a stable with abundant talent who have clearly aimed impressively at this after running third in a traditionally strong Newmarket handicap in mid summer.

He’s unproven on soft ground which looks likely at the weekend and he will need to make all of the progress he threatens to if he’s going to take this.

At the other end of the age range, the evergreen eight-year-old Summerghand has danced every dance in the big sprint handicaps this season and he got his head in front at York a couple of starts ago. He’s as dependent as anything and will run his race granted luck with the draw but doesn’t have any secrets from the handicapper now.

For the same stable Gulliver arrives with similar credentials and ran another solid race at the Curragh at the weekend, once again looking a bit unlucky, but it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve said that and, while it would be nice to see him get reward for his consistency, it’s not something I’d be prepared to bet on.

The trainer to follow in this race in recent times has been Kevin Ryan, who has won this with horses he’s clearly targeted from some way out and last year’s winner, Bielsa, arrives back just 1lb higher than for last year’s win having been running in races which mostly didn’t follow since.

He was really impressive in this 12 months ago, recording an RPR of 110 and, as you can bet he’ll be primed for Saturday, a big run can be expected.

Ryan also has the hat-trick seeking four-year-old, Bergerac, entered and he also gives the stable a strong hand having just held on over half a furlong shorter at York last time.

However, the one from the yard I like best and who seems to have had this race as his target all season too is MAGICAL SPIRITwho hasn’t beaten an opponent in two runs this campaign but has come down four pounds in the weights as a result.

He’s a horse who can win off a bad run as evidenced by a Doncaster victory at 25/1 last autumn where he had Fresh in third beaten three lengths off a mark of 98.

That rival has won two big field handicaps at Ascot recently, the latest off 102, so the form looks very solid especially as it came on soft ground, which looks like being the case on Saturday.

He followed that up on the last day of the season with a head second to the 108-rated and subsequent Group Two winner King’s Lynn in the Wentworth Stakes and clearly thrives at this time of year with four of his six victories coming in September and October .

Captain Ramius and Bielsa won this as six-year olds for Ryan and I think Magical Spirit stands out as the early bet at 20/1.

The most interesting race from a betting point of view at Newbury is the Dubai Duty Free Handicap over ten furlongs where some regarded well three-year-olds from big yards head the betting.

There’s no bigger yard that that of Charlie Appleby and he has the top two in the market courtesy of Warren Point and Ottoman Fleet. They come here with different profiles, the former a comfortable winner of a well contested Goodwood handicap, the latter having finished fourth in the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot when sent off 9/4.

William Haggas runs the third home there, Lysander, in this along with hat-trick seeking Hamaki, who still looks nicely treated off 91, and you get the impression this is really a Group race with horses who could be mixing it at a higher level next year.

The horse who looked to be putting it all together last time at Goodwood, though, is SAVVY VICTORYwho turned a handicap there into a procession and who occupies a place high in the betting for next weekend’s Cambridgeshire.

He’d actually be two pounds better off at Newmarket but that would be in a massive field where he could be drawn out of things dropping back a furlong and I think the intention must be to run here having run at distances not short of ten furlongs all season.

Trainer Sean Woods has only had one winner in the last fortnight but has had placed horses at 20/1, 15/2, 6/1 and 13/2, so there seems no reason to doubt his form and his horse should be in the shake up at 10/1 with still more to give.

The big juvenile race is the Group Two Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes and it sees Persian Force, who has put together a remarkably consistent run in some top races for Amo Racing, head the betting but he does have to concede a three pounds penalty for his July Stakes victory.

Middleham Park have had a brilliant season with their two-year-olds and Shouldhavebeenaring could be another for them coming here in search of the hat-trick and has already attracted early market interest.

The value, though, could be in the shape of the once-raced Clive Cox-trained HEROISM, who quickly put to bed a Salisbury maiden from a 2/7 shot from the all-conquering Owen Burrows stable on debut. Cox likes this race and must have a very high opinion of the Invincible Spirit colt, which points to a big run at the weekend.

The Group Three sprint on the card, the Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakesreflects the feeling that this division is very open behind Highfield Princess but anybody who saw MANACAN take the Listed Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster last week will not want to desert him in his follow up bid.

John Ryan, who has trained some good sprinters, immediately nominated this as the three-year-old’s next target and I’d want to follow him until beaten. A horse with a high cruising speed and potent turn of foot, Newbury should suit him well and he could be competing for top honors over the minimum trip next year.

The forecast for Newbury is dry for the latter part of the week so the good to soft ground should be fine and it makes sense to strike while the iron is hot so he’s worth backing at 9/2.

Preview posted 1020 BST on 13/09/2022



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