Robert B. Lewis 2022: Odds and analysis - petsitterbank

Robert B. Lewis 2022: Odds and analysis

Santa Anita offers another Kentucky Derby prep with a small field in the Grade 3, $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Sunday, but there is quality lined up in the race. Trainer Bob Baffert enters two talented runners in Messier and Wharton. One of those two Baffert entries will end up as the clear single below in all tickets.

Click here for Santa Anita Entries, Results.

Here are thoughts on each of the five entries.

The Robert B. Lewis is carded as Race 8 with a post time of 4 pm PST. Odds are from Horse Racing Nation.

1. Messier

, 7/5 (Empire Maker – Bob Baffert/John Velazquez – 4: 2-2-0 – $165,600): This Empire Maker colt broke his maiden by 6 ½ lengths last October at Santa Anita, before also capturing the Bob Hope Stakes ( G3) in November at Del Mar after closing into a fast pace. Messier’s runner-up finish to Slow Down Andy in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) is forgivable for now. He only lost by one length, while another nine lengths came between him and the third-place Barossa. The large gap to the rest of the field is a good sign Messier is on another level. In addition, Messier earned a 110 on TimeformUS. Even though Slow Down Andy was green in the stretch at Los Alamitos and still beat him, he is not entered here. Expect Messier show tactical speed from the rail under Velazquez and finish strong. The pick.

2. Sir London, 4-1 (Malibu Moon – Simon Callaghan/Flavien Prat – 3: 1-2-0 – $57,400): After two runner-up finishes in the maiden ranks at Santa Anita and Del Mar, Sir London put it all together for a strong 10-length win in a Los Alamitos maiden race. Perhaps the stretchout to one mile was beneficial for this colt, but the easier Los Alamitos group of maidens played a role in his maiden breaker as well. In this spot, Sir London needs to face two Baffert entries in Messier and Wharton, plus Happy Jack from the Doug O’Neill barn and the turf stakes experienced Cabo Spirit. Sir London did earn a respectable 100 on TimeformUS for the maiden romp, and a 106 for his runner-up finish on Nov. 13 in a Santa Anita maiden race. If bettors feel the need to play this race vertically, and that is a big if, he is useful in the second slot. Use underneath

.

3. Cabo Spirit, 6-1 (Pioneerof the Nile – George Papaprodromou/Victor Espinoza – 7: 2-1-2 – $137,220): Cabo Spirit has been running well on turf with a recent win in the local Eddie Logan Stakes and a third in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3). Now he enters the Derby trail and switches back to dirt. Unfortunately, Cabo Spirit lost three straight times on dirt to start off his career before switching to turf. Most horses do not grow into liking a surface. Either it clicks in the first few tries, or it does not. As a counterpoint to that logic, Cabo Spirit’s dam line extends to Cee’s Song, the dam of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Tiznow. In Cabo Spirit’s more immediate family though, his damsire is the European runner Sharmadal, who won four Group 1 races in Europe over the course of 2004 and 2005. Cabo Spirit needs to prove himself on this surface before trusting him. Toss.

4. Wharton, 2-1 (Candy Ride – Bob Baffert/Juan Hernandez – 1: 1-0-0 – $40,200): In most cases, it is not wise to dismiss a Baffert-trained colt on the Derby trail because of inexperience. Baffert does not crank his first-time starters, and Wharton won by 5 ¼ lengths anyway in a local maiden sprint on Dec. 31. Wharton needs to stretch out to one and one-sixteenth miles in this spot. Despite his damsire Include, Wharton’s dam Her Smile is a bit of a red flag as she ran as a sprinter throughout her career. Her Smile’s career highlight came when she won the 2011 Prioress Stakes (G1). Wharton’s half-sister Pink Sands found success as an elongated sprinter/miler. She won the 2020 Inside Information Stakes (G2) at seven furlongs, among other races. To counter the sprint/miler bottom side, Candy Ride is on top is fine for route distances. Right now, Wharton’s stablemate Messier is the better win bet in this two-turn route. For second, it is a tossup between Wharton and Sir London. Use underneath.

5. HappyJack, 8-1 (Oxbow – Doug O’Neill/TBA – 1:1-0-0 – $40,200): Happy Jack broke his maiden in a local six-furlong maiden sprint on Jan. 22 with a somewhat low 96 TimeformUS Speed ​​Figure. He needs to improve while stepping up to a Derby prep race and facing a two-turn route for the first time. To his credit, he shows a nice pedigree for routing with his sire Oxbow on top and damsire Tapit. Trainer Doug O’Neill has won the Kentucky Derby twice as well. O’Neill knows what kind of horse belongs on the rigorous Derby trail, and he seems to think highly enough of Happy Jack to give him a shot. With that said, Happy Jack probably needs more seasoning before he can defeat these types of horses. Toss.

Conclusion:

Messier is the right horse on top.

Second is a close call between Sir London and Wharton. Given Sir London improved on the stretchout, while Wharton is unproven, Sir London is more logical to use. In terms of value, the straight Messier over Sir London exacta would pay more as well.

Win: 1
Exact: 1 / 2

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